There are two words that most farmers fear, and Australia's Weather Bureau has now confirmed them. The bureau has officially declared that an El Nino is underway, ending a long stretch without one and putting the country on notice for a difficult run of weather in the months ahead.
This is the first El Nino in nearly three years, and the bureau has warned that this one could be the strongest in modern times. Officials say the pattern is expected to take hold and persist at least until Christmas, meaning its effects will shape conditions through much of the coming season rather than passing quickly.
El Nino is typically associated with hotter and drier weather, and in Australia it has long been linked with droughts and fires. The bureau described how a combination of factors, including the weather, the winds and the cloudiness, have all been teaming up to produce what is now understood to be an El Nino event.
For much of the country, the bureau expects below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. Those conditions are forecast to be felt particularly across central and eastern Australia, the regions where the drying and warming influence of El Nino tends to be most pronounced.
The declaration also carries a clear warning about bushfires. With hotter, drier and more extreme temperatures on the way, the bureau says Australia faces a longer fire season, a prospect that raises the stakes for communities and emergency services preparing for the warmer months.
Alongside the heat and dryness, the bureau noted other expected effects of this El Nino, including fewer cyclones and less alpine snow. Taken together, the outlook points to a season defined by drier ground, higher temperatures and elevated fire risk across large parts of the country.