A new Newspoll has delivered a striking result for Australian politics, placing One Nation ahead of the government on the primary vote. According to the survey, One Nation now sits on 31 percent, just in front of Labor on 30 percent. The figures, which made domestic headlines, confirm a notable rise in support for the party and mark a moment that few would have predicted of a minor party only a short time ago.
The Newspoll result does not stand alone. It follows similar findings from Redbridge, with both pointing in the same direction and reinforcing the picture of a genuine shift rather than a one-off reading. Taken together, the polls suggest the surge in One Nation's support is broad enough to register across more than one set of numbers, which is part of what has given the result its weight in the political conversation.
The shift quickly became a point of contention, with Labor frontbencher Tanya Plibersek and a One Nation representative setting out sharply different interpretations during a spirited exchange on breakfast television. Plibersek argued that One Nation was not the answer to voters' frustrations, describing it as a party that says workers should be paid less and be easier to sack. She also pointed to its record of voting against cost-of-living measures the government had tried to introduce.
Plibersek sharpened the attack by contrasting One Nation's messaging with the conduct of its leadership. She said the party's leader was arguing that workers should be paid less and made easier to dismiss while flying around the country on the private jet of mining magnate Gina Rinehart. The line was aimed at framing One Nation as out of step with the very voters it claims to represent, even as its polling numbers climb.
From the One Nation side, the response was that the polling simply reflects the sentiment of the people, who are described as being over both Labor and the Coalition. The argument ran that voters are underwhelmed by the government and are turning to One Nation despite its small footprint in Canberra. The party noted it operates with only a handful of support staff and a small number of members in parliament, yet is still recording the kind of polling now being reported.
Underlying the exchange is a broader message about discontent with the major parties. The One Nation argument leaned heavily on the idea that voters feel let down, including a claim that the government had said one thing before the budget and then done something different. Whether the numbers hold or prove to be a high-water mark, the result has put One Nation at the centre of the national political debate and will be closely watched in the lead-up to the next federal election.