At a press conference, Alberta Premier Daniel Smith estimated that independence from Canada would cost four hundred billion dollars upfront with an additional twenty-five to fifty billion dollars annually. She said Albertans need to be very realistic about what kind of costs and inconveniences people would have in their lives if they decided to vote for separation.
The Premier laid out specific costs including having to renegotiate all trade agreements around the world, establish trade offices, set up a post office, and regulate telecoms and banking. She noted that one hundred seventy billion dollars of that upfront cost is Alberta's share of the national debt alone.
A professor of economics told CBC News that the numbers are true but on the conservative side. He estimates the total cost could be at least half a trillion dollars. He believes the reaction of international capital and trade markets to Alberta independence would be severe, leading to an even bigger bill.
On the other side of the debate, Alberta separatists feel that the four hundred billion dollar figure is worth complete freedom. One separatist told CBC that literally within three to five years of Alberta independence, the province could have complete zero income tax in both the federal and provincial income tax. When asked about the four hundred billion, he responded: who cares, we are paid off in eight years.
However, the economics professor says the separatists have not fully factored in the cost of creating a brand new national government out of nothing. The transitional costs of establishing all the institutions of an independent state would add significantly to the total bill.
The separation debate continues to be top of mind in Alberta and the question of whether an independent Alberta could work remains unclear. This new price tag from the provincial government is starting to shed more light on the actual costs involved.
The cost estimate was presented alongside broader discussions about Canada-US trade relations, as Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with US Trade Representative Jamison Greer ahead of the July first USMCA review deadline.