A new public opinion poll suggests Ontario Premier Doug Ford's government has taken a hit after an expense-spending controversy, with the opposition Liberals now running ahead of his governing Progressive Conservatives. The Liaison Strategies survey marks a notable shift for a premier who has dominated the province's politics, and it lands as his party prepares for a series of by-elections.
The new poll of 1,000 Ontarians from Liaison Strategies shows Ford's government trailing the provincial Liberals by five points. The Liberals sit at 38 percent support, while PC support has fallen to 33 percent and the New Democrats have risen to 24 percent. It is a striking reversal for a governing party that has grown used to leading comfortably in the polls.
Ford's personal standing has slipped along with his party's. The survey puts his approval rating at 24 percent, with 72 percent of respondents saying they disapprove of his performance as premier. The numbers point to a broad erosion of support rather than a narrow dip tied to a single issue, according to the poll's findings.
The downturn comes after Ford apologized for some of his GTA members who billed taxpayers for thousands of dollars in hotel stays, even though they live near Queen's Park. That episode added to earlier controversy over the purchase of a private jet, which the pollster said triggered a big dip in the government's numbers when the news broke.
The pollster who put the survey together said the slide has been building for months, describing a steady decline in voting intention for the Ford Conservatives ever since last October. For years, the expert noted, Ford had defied the usual laws of political gravity, staying popular even after eight years in office, but suggested that may now be changing as he becomes a more familiar and settled figure at Queen's Park.
Ford did not take questions from reporters on the day the poll was released, but he struck a confident tone about his party's prospects, insisting that if an election were held today his party would form another majority. The survey did not break the results down to a granular riding level, leaving open questions about how the shift would play out seat by seat.
The poll arrives ahead of three by-elections in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area that are expected to be called in the coming weeks. Interim Liberal leader John Fraser said his party is not taking anything for granted, arguing that the races will be competitive and that hard work, not favourable polls, is what wins campaigns, adding that the only poll that counts is the one held on election day.