With Toronto's mayoral election now about 80 days away, a new poll has offered a glimpse into where the race stands, and it points to a familiar name out front. The survey, conducted by Liaison Strategies, suggested that incumbent mayor Olivia Chow continues to lead the field as the campaign heads into a busier stretch and voters begin paying closer attention.
Among those with a sense of how they intend to vote, the poll put Chow in front with 47 per cent support. Her closest challenger, Brad Bradford, sat at 40 per cent, keeping the contest between the two front-runners within single digits at this stage of the campaign and setting up a competitive race in the weeks ahead.
The survey also marked the first time that new candidate Chris Alexander was included in the polling, and he debuted at 10 per cent. It is a modest starting figure, but one that establishes him as a third name in a contest that had largely been framed as a two-way battle between Chow and Bradford up to this point.
The numbers also underscored how much of the electorate has yet to make up its mind. The poll found that 20 per cent of voters surveyed were still undecided, leaving a significant bloc in play, and it suggested that many Torontonians simply do not yet know who Chris Alexander is as the race takes shape.
That unfamiliarity was striking in the data, with 61 per cent of respondents saying they were not familiar with Alexander. A former Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan and Conservative MP, he was expected to shake things up when he joined the race last month, but the poll indicates his name recognition still has considerable ground to cover.
On the street, opinions about the field were mixed. "If she's the best one out there, then yes, I would vote for Chow," one resident said, while another offered a blunt verdict: "I would vote for anything except Olivia Chow. I live in the city. It's a disaster." Of Bradford, one voter said they were hoping he could follow through on the many opinions he holds, while others admitted they had never even heard of some candidates' platforms.
The results have also fuelled speculation about how Alexander's entry could reshape the contest. Because he is seen as competing for some of the same voters as Bradford, there is speculation that his presence in the race could take more right-leaning votes away from Bradford, a dynamic that could prove important if the finish is close.