Canada's population has shrunk again, declining for a third straight quarter according to new figures from Statistics Canada. The data points to a demographic shift that experts say the country has been slow to confront. It also places Canada among a growing number of nations now grappling with the prospect of a shrinking population.
According to Statistics Canada, the population decreased by about 55,000 in the first quarter of this year, falling to just over 41,400,000. That represents a drop of roughly 0.1% from the start of the year on January 1st, marking the third consecutive quarter in which the total has gone down rather than up.
A central factor is the balance of births compared with deaths. Canada's fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.25, far below the level a population needs to remain stable on its own. The combination of fewer births and an aging society is reshaping the country's long-term outlook.
The trend is not unique to Canada. Populations are shrinking across much of the world, and a Canadian population-change expert noted that while aging is a common theme in national discussions, the idea of outright depopulation and shrinking has not really been part of the conversation. He argued that Canadians should be talking about it much more.
That expert, identified as Hartwell, suggested the shift does not have to be seen as a catastrophe. The global population, he said, will probably begin to decline before the end of the century, and the task is to make the best of a difficult demographic situation rather than to panic, a process he likened to making lemonade out of a tough hand.
Part of the reason Canada has not dwelled on the issue, the expert said, is that the country has historically been far more a nation of immigrants. That reliance on newcomers, he noted, allowed Canadians to avoid thinking too hard about the underlying changes in their own population over the years.
The Canadian numbers landed as attention turned abroad for possible lessons, particularly to South Korea, where a much steeper collapse in births has prompted aggressive measures such as matchmaking parks, baby bonuses, heavily subsidized housing and state-funded fertility treatment. With Canada's own fertility rate at a record low, observers suggested those experiments are worth watching closely.