Peru's presidential runoff is shaping up as an extraordinarily close contest, with an exit poll pointing to a result that is too tight to call. The early indication is of a race separated by the narrowest of margins, leaving the outcome uncertain as the count gets under way. Both sides are watching the numbers closely as the picture develops.
The choice is between two candidates offering very different visions for the country. On one side is Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of Alberto Fujimori, Peru's strongman president in the 1990s, who very much runs on his legacy and was the first lady during that time. On the other, on the left, is Roberto Sanchez, who runs on the legacy of Pedro Castillo, the former president elected in 2021 who represented Peru's poorest and rural voters.
The vote comes against a backdrop of deep political instability. The eventual winner will become the ninth leader of Peru in the last 10 years, with eight presidents having held office over the past decade. Many voters, particularly young people, said they were frustrated by what they saw as a polarizing choice that was unlikely to end the turmoil, especially as no single party holds a majority in Congress, where presidents have repeatedly seen their plans frustrated.
The runoff follows a first round that was widely seen as troubled. There were delays on that occasion, with some polling stations not opening at the proper time after they did not receive the correct electoral materials. The problems were enough to raise questions about how smoothly the process had been run.
Crucially, those earlier difficulties were not judged to be sinister. International observers said there was no evidence of fraudulent behaviour in the first round, concluding that mistakes had been made but that they did not indicate fraud. It was framed instead as a case of the electoral management not going to plan, particularly around the delivery of materials.
This time, fresh complaints have surfaced. There have been allegations that some polling stations received what was described as incorrect ballot papers, or ballot papers that had been damaged in some way. Even so, it is considered too early to suggest that any actual fraud has taken place beyond what is currently known.
The numbers in circulation so far come with an important caveat. The figure that has been seen is just an exit poll and not the official results, meaning the formal tally could still shift. More formal results are expected to come through around eight o'clock local time, roughly three hours after the projection emerged.
With the margin so fine, the aftermath could be contentious. If the final result is as close as the exit poll suggests, with less than a percentage point between the two, challenges from both sides are seen as a real possibility. Each camp is expected to want to be absolutely sure that every vote is counted before any outcome is accepted.