Xavier Becerra remains the clear favorite to win California’s governorship, according to prediction markets and recent polls after a bruising final debate on May 14. However, billionaire Democratic candidate Tom Steyer has seen his chances increase significantly in the closing days before June's primary.
Becerra led with around 52% support from major prediction platforms but saw this drop slightly as Steyer’s implied probability rose to nearly 35%, up almost 10 points over a few days. "The debate was intense, and it could still shift," said political analyst Sarah Jones after the event.
With only three weeks until voting, campaigns are ramping up efforts to sway undecided voters. The primary system ensures that even minor shifts can have significant impacts on who advances in November's general election regardless of party affiliation.
Steyer’s focus has been climate change and he hopes his late surge will help him make a stronger showing against Republican Steve Hilton, whose backing from former President Donald Trump remains minimal at just under 10%.
This article was produced by AVALW News on Friday, May 15, 2026 based on reporting from 4 verified news sources. Our editorial process cross-references facts from multiple independent outlets to deliver accurate, comprehensive coverage. All original sources are linked below.