Colorado State University has released an updated outlook for this year's Atlantic hurricane season, and the new numbers point to a quieter stretch than earlier expected. The latest forecast now calls for nine named storms over the course of the season.
That figure marks a clear step down from the university's April forecast, which had projected 13 named storms. The revision lowers expectations by several storms and reflects how the outlook has shifted as forecasters take in new information.
Within that total of nine named storms, the updated forecast anticipates that four of them will strengthen into hurricanes. Of those, one is expected to become a major hurricane, the category reserved for the most powerful and dangerous systems.
According to the update, the big reason behind the reduced numbers lies well outside the Atlantic basin. Forecasters point to a strong start to the season in the eastern Pacific, a development that is expected to carry major implications for what unfolds in the Atlantic.
The connection comes down to the winds tied to that pattern. Strong winds linked to the active eastern Pacific are seen limiting how organized and how tall Atlantic storms can become, making it harder for systems to grow into stronger, better-defined hurricanes.
In the immediate term, the outlook calls for little tropical development. Forecasters expect limited activity over the next six or seven days, with the updated numbers from Colorado State University now setting the tone for how the rest of the season could play out.