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Trump endorses Texas AG Ken Paxton against four-term Senator John Cornyn in closely watched primary
President Trump has endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a Republican primary challenge against four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Prediction markets give Paxton a 95 percent chance of winning, in what could end Cornyn's nearly 24-year career in Washington.
President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a Republican primary challenge against four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn, creating one of the most closely watched intra-party contests of the 2026 midterm cycle. The endorsement came last week and has dramatically reshaped the dynamics of the race.
Prediction markets now give Paxton a 95 percent chance of winning the primary, according to Kalshi data cited by Bloomberg. If Paxton prevails, it would end Cornyn's nearly 24-year career in Washington, where he has served as one of the most senior Republican senators and held the position of Senate Minority Whip.
The Texas race has become a bellwether for the broader trend of Trump reshaping the Republican Party in his image ahead of the November midterm elections. Cornyn, while generally supportive of Trump's agenda, has occasionally broken with the former president on procedural matters, which appears to have made him a target for replacement by a more firmly aligned loyalist.
Paxton, who survived an impeachment trial in the Texas Senate in 2023, has positioned himself as a fighter against federal overreach and a staunch Trump ally. His candidacy has energized the party's base in Texas while dividing establishment Republicans who view Cornyn's experience and seniority as assets the party cannot afford to lose in a closely divided Senate.
The Texas primary is being held today alongside several other state contests that are testing Trump's influence over Republican voters. The outcome will provide important signals about the president's ability to shape the party heading into a midterm election season where Republicans are defending a slim House majority and seeking to hold their ground in the Senate.