President Trump has said that a deal to end the war with Iran will be signed today, writing on Truth Social that once it has been signed the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all. He talked up the idea of an imminent signing when it comes to the memorandum of understanding at the centre of the negotiations. His comments raised expectations of a swift breakthrough in a conflict that has weighed heavily on global energy markets.
The Pakistani Prime Minister, whose government has been involved in the process, said that both sides have agreed in principle to the framework. He indicated that Islamabad was preparing for some sort of electronic signing today, with the more technical details to be discussed next week. That account suggested the outline of an agreement was already in place, even as the precise timing remained an open question.
Iran offered a more cautious version of events. The foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmail Bagai, said that was not the case and that nothing would be signed today, although he did not rule out something being signed in the coming days. The contrast between the messaging from Washington, Islamabad and Tehran left observers uncertain about exactly when, or whether, any document would be formally concluded.
It was stressed that this is not a peace deal in itself. It is a memorandum of understanding, essentially a framework for what would be negotiated in the next round of talks and an extension of the ceasefire. The arrangement would buy both sides time and space to discuss the most complex issues, such as Iran's nuclear programme, which would not be resolved at this stage and would instead be left to a later phase.
According to multiple sources who have spoken to Reuters and seen the draft details, the United States is looking to potentially unfreeze billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds and lift sanctions on the country's oil exports in return for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The very complex question of Iran's nuclear programme would not be sorted out in this memorandum and would be addressed as part of whatever comes next.
Even so, there is still a great deal that could go wrong. The United States shot down Iranian drones flying near the Strait of Hormuz yesterday morning. Israel, which has crucially not been part of these discussions, said it had struck 70 sites in Lebanon over the previous 24 hours in its fight against Hezbollah, and Iran has been extremely clear that any agreement needs to extend to what is happening in Lebanon and end the fighting there.
Domestically, hardliners in Iran have become even more entrenched over the course of the war, with videos appearing on social media showing large gatherings and protests outside the foreign ministry opposing the agreement. Analysts also noted that any deal would be a hard sell for President Trump to the American people, given the money spent, the US lives lost and the geopolitical capital expended, ultimately for the reopening of a global shipping lane that had not even been closed before.