Liberal Member of Parliament Shaun Chen has announced that he will resign his seat for the riding of Scarborough North at the end of this week. In a message posted on social media, Chen said he has been suffering from serious health issues since a motor vehicle accident last year in Ottawa. He has represented the Scarborough North riding since 2015, making him one of the longer-serving members on the governing Liberal benches.
Prime Minister Mark Carney responded to the announcement with a message thanking Chen for his work combating racism and for his advocacy for young people. Chen's departure sets in motion the process to fill his Toronto-area seat, which will now have to be scheduled for a by-election alongside several others already in the pipeline.
The resignation adds Scarborough North to a growing list of seats that will have to be filled through by-elections. Voters are currently in the midst of campaigns for by-elections in three ridings, one in Quebec, one in Vancouver, and one in the Greater Toronto Area. Those votes are scheduled for August 31 and include a runoff in Beaches East York.
Beyond the seats already being contested, several more vacancies are pending. Two by-elections will be needed to replace retired Conservative MPs, one in Saskatchewan and another in Brantford, Ontario. Three others are expected in Quebec, including the seat that will soon be vacated by former Environment Minister Stephen Guilbeault.
None of these upcoming by-elections is likely to change the balance of power in Parliament, but the votes are widely seen as a temperature check on voters' moods toward the government. New polling released as the campaigns unfold shows Carney's party maintaining a double-digit lead over the Conservatives.
According to the survey, the Liberals are the top ballot-box choice for 44 percent of decided or leaning voters, versus 31 percent who support Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. The Conservatives dropped three percentage points since their last poll, while the NDP moved up by three, now with the support of 13 percent of those surveyed. The Bloc Quebecois is running at 6 percent and the Green Party at 3 percent.
The figures are considered good numbers for the Liberals heading into the August 31 round of by-elections, including the Beaches East York runoff. That riding looks directly across the lake toward Billy Bishop Airport, where support for expansion was low. The upcoming vote was likely a small consideration in the Liberal government's decision to block a plan to expand Billy Bishop to accommodate jet traffic, a move to which Ontario Premier Doug Ford responded by threatening to withdraw his support for Carney's Alto high-speed rail plan.